Trump Now Leading in National Poll Averages

Despite claims by the media that Trump would likely lose the election against Hillary (while absurdly claiming that John Kasich performed the best in a head on fight with Clinton), the RCP average of national polls now gives Trump a slight edge. The Hill reports:

Presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump has overtaken Democratic front-runnerHillary Clinton in an average of head-to-head national polls, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls.

Trump leads Clinton by 0.2 percentage points, 43.4 percent to 43.2 percent in the average, overtaking the Democratic front-runner for the first time in the average of polls.

Several recent surveys have shown Trump with an advantage over Clinton.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted May 16–19 shows a tight race between the two candidates, with Trump holding a 2-point lead over Clinton. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 17–18 had the presumptive GOP nominee up 5 points over Clinton. A recent Fox News poll also showed Trump with a lead.

Also of interest is the over or under sampling of voter groups in national polls that have given Hillary a lead. The latest New York Times poll samples Democrats at 8% over Republicans. Gallup in 2015, on the other hand, gave the Democrats only a 3% edge over their rivals. The New York Times also under samples Independents, giving them only a representation of 34%. Organizations like Gallup are reporting record high numbers of Independents within the 40% range. Donald Trump, of course, is dominating with independents on a national level.

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